Intermodal carriers are seeing the best volumes in years, thanks to tight supply in over-the-road trucking. But the rate of growth will ebb as the truck market returns to more normal levels, says an industry expert.
In a a conference call hosted by Stifel, Gross Transportation Consulting principal Larry Gross said North America is past the peak of the trucking shortage, with the upshot being that the growth in truck rates will moderate.
“Going forward the industry is in the process of correcting and adding the people and adding drivers, Gross said.
“The industry is going to get their driver cohort right sized, which is not to say that it’s going to be easy to recruit drivers, but it won’t continue to be as difficult and and wages will continue to have to go up but not to the extent that we’ve seen recently,” he added.
As reported in FreightWaves earlier today, employment in truck transportation rose for the fifth consecutive month, adding 4,900 to the payrolls in September, with the rate of change accelerating from a year ago.
Trucking rates peaked at 20% year-on-year growth earlier this year, Gross said. But thanks to the addition of more drivers, the rate of that growth will moderate next year with rates showing growth of 5% or below next year.